E/MEarnMathby Dynep
EarnMath / Calculators / Ecommerce Profit Goal Calculator
Ecommerce contribution math

How many orders would your profit target require?

Use contribution margin rather than topline revenue to see the order volume behind the goal.

Profit → orders → trafficNo revenue screenshot math.
Your assumptions

Build the ecommerce model

Defaults are illustrative only. Replace them with your own numbers.

A store can grow revenue and still miss its profit target. This calculator starts from contribution per order after product margin, platform/payment fees and a return allowance, then works backward from the profit goal.

The calculator is deterministic: the same inputs produce the same result. It does not use AI to invent demand, conversion rates, market prices or expected income.

What you get

  • Contribution per order
  • Required monthly orders
  • Traffic implied by conversion
  • Gross revenue associated with that order volume

Important limitation

Shipping/fulfillment, acquisition cost and payment fees are explicit inputs. Taxes are not modeled automatically, and fulfillment labor should be reflected in your per-order or admin time assumptions when relevant.

For decisions involving tax, law, regulated investments or material financial commitments, use appropriate professional advice and verified source data.

Ecommerce revenue can look healthy while contribution per order is fragile.

The model starts with average order value and gross margin after product cost, then subtracts percentage platform/payment fees, a fixed payment fee, shipping and fulfillment, returns/refund allowance and acquisition cost per order. Only the amount left after those items contributes toward your fixed monthly costs and income target.

Core mathcontribution per order = AOV × (gross margin − percentage fees − return allowance) − fixed payment fee − fulfillment − acquisition costorders needed = ceil((income target + fixed monthly cost) ÷ contribution)visitors needed = ceil(orders needed ÷ conversion rate)

Illustrative example

At $65 AOV, 45% gross margin, 4% percentage fees, a $0.30 fixed payment fee, $5 shipping/fulfillment, a 5% return allowance, no paid acquisition cost, 2.2% conversion and $80 fixed monthly cost, the example produces $18.10 contribution per order. A $2,000 target requires 115 orders and about 5,228 visitors per month. Adding only $10 of acquisition cost per order cuts contribution to $8.10 and pushes the requirement to 257 orders and roughly 11,682 visitors.

Do not omit expensive reality

  • Use fully loaded shipping and fulfillment, not only postage.
  • Model discounts and returns inside margin/allowance inputs.
  • If traffic is paid, put the acquisition cost in the model instead of treating visitors as free.
  • Include handling time if each order creates manual work.

If a small change to CAC, conversion or returns doubles the required order volume, the business is sensitivity-heavy. That is a signal to validate unit economics before investing in inventory or scaling traffic.